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Prediction of Hepatitis C burden in Canada
S Zou | M Tepper | S El Saadany
To assess the risk of hepatitis C in Canada and to predict
the burden that this disease may pose to the Canadian
society in the near future, expected numbers of persons
at different stages of the disease currently and in
the next decade were estimated by simulation using a
published hepatitis C natural history model with no
treatment effect being applied. Based on the estimate
of 240,000 persons who are currently infected with the
hepatitis C virus in Canada, the simulation analysis
demonstrated that the number of hepatitis C cirrhosis
cases would likely increase by 92% from 1998 to the
year 2008. It was also projected that the number of
liver failures and hepatocellular carcinomas related
to hepatitis C would increase by 126% and 102%, respectively,
in the next decade. The number of liver-related deaths
associated with hepatitis C is expected to increase
by 126% in 10 years. The medical and social care systems
in Canada may not be ready to support these large increases.
These results highlight the importance of both the control
of disease progression of hepatitis C virus-infected
persons and the primary prevention of hepatitis C infections
in Canada.
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