Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics of syphilis in china

Background: Syphilis, a sexually transmitted infectious disease caused by the bacterium treponema pallidum， and it remains a significant cause of morbidity in many developing countries. Mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted infections have provided insights of relevance both to the interpretation of observed epidemiological patterns and to the design of control programs.

Goal and study design: Based on the syphilis data in China from 2010 to 2020, the SEIRS dynamical model was established to provide theoretical support and quantitative basis for syphilis control in China.

Results: First of all, based on the data of syphilis in China from 2010 to 2020, the parameterizations and model calibration are carried out. The fitting results are in good agreement with the data. And then, we calculate the basic reproduction number R₀, and R₀=1.0556, which means that the syphilis epidemic will continue to be prevalent in China. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows that the progression rate from incubating to infection (w), treatment rate in infection stage (γ), and treatment rate in incubating stage (α) play a critical role in mitigating the syphilis outbreaks.

Conclusion: These results can help us gain insights into the epidemiology of syphilis and provide guidance for the public health authorities to implement health education programs.